Cargando…

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wang, Luqi, Wang, Weibing
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8197385/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34073943
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115607
_version_ 1783706907893039104
author Wang, Luqi
Wang, Weibing
author_facet Wang, Luqi
Wang, Weibing
author_sort Wang, Luqi
collection PubMed
description Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8197385
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-81973852021-06-13 Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis Wang, Luqi Wang, Weibing Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention. MDPI 2021-05-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8197385/ /pubmed/34073943 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115607 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Luqi
Wang, Weibing
Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
title Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
title_full Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
title_fullStr Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
title_short Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
title_sort temporal trends in notification and mortality of tuberculosis in china, 2004–2019: a joinpoint and age–period–cohort analysis
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8197385/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34073943
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115607
work_keys_str_mv AT wangluqi temporaltrendsinnotificationandmortalityoftuberculosisinchina20042019ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis
AT wangweibing temporaltrendsinnotificationandmortalityoftuberculosisinchina20042019ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis