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The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic is currently ongoing. Presently, due to the unavailability of a definitive vaccine to decrease its acquiring, it’s essential to understand its transmissibility in the community by undetected cases to control its transmission. This study aims to study this context usi...

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Autores principales: Saha, Sujata, Saha, Sumanta
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Indian National Science Academy 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8200798/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13226-021-00035-6
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author Saha, Sujata
Saha, Sumanta
author_facet Saha, Sujata
Saha, Sumanta
author_sort Saha, Sujata
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic is currently ongoing. Presently, due to the unavailability of a definitive vaccine to decrease its acquiring, it’s essential to understand its transmissibility in the community by undetected cases to control its transmission. This study aims to study this context using mathematical modelling. METHODS: A COVID-19 transmission model was framed that estimated the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] (a measurement of disease risk) using the next-generation method. It explored the contribution of exposed and infected (detected and undetected) individuals, and environmental pathogen to the overall risk of infection spreading, utilizing the publicly reported data of this infection in Maharashtra between March 22, 2020, and May 4, 2020. A sensitivity analysis was performed to study the effect of a rising number of undetected cases to [Formula: see text] . RESULTS: The estimated basic reproduction number is [Formula: see text] , which increases rapidly with the rise in the undetected COVID-19 cases. Although the exposed individuals made the largest contribution to infection transmission ([Formula: see text] ), the contaminated environment also played a significant role. CONCLUSIONS: It is crucial to identify the individuals exposed and infected to COVID-19 disease and isolate them to control its transmission. The awareness of the role of fomites in infection transmission is also important in this regard.
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spelling pubmed-82007982021-06-15 The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics Saha, Sujata Saha, Sumanta Indian J Pure Appl Math Original Research OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic is currently ongoing. Presently, due to the unavailability of a definitive vaccine to decrease its acquiring, it’s essential to understand its transmissibility in the community by undetected cases to control its transmission. This study aims to study this context using mathematical modelling. METHODS: A COVID-19 transmission model was framed that estimated the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] (a measurement of disease risk) using the next-generation method. It explored the contribution of exposed and infected (detected and undetected) individuals, and environmental pathogen to the overall risk of infection spreading, utilizing the publicly reported data of this infection in Maharashtra between March 22, 2020, and May 4, 2020. A sensitivity analysis was performed to study the effect of a rising number of undetected cases to [Formula: see text] . RESULTS: The estimated basic reproduction number is [Formula: see text] , which increases rapidly with the rise in the undetected COVID-19 cases. Although the exposed individuals made the largest contribution to infection transmission ([Formula: see text] ), the contaminated environment also played a significant role. CONCLUSIONS: It is crucial to identify the individuals exposed and infected to COVID-19 disease and isolate them to control its transmission. The awareness of the role of fomites in infection transmission is also important in this regard. Indian National Science Academy 2021-06-14 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8200798/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13226-021-00035-6 Text en © The Indian National Science Academy 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Research
Saha, Sujata
Saha, Sumanta
The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
title The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
title_full The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
title_fullStr The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
title_full_unstemmed The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
title_short The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
title_sort impact of the undetected covid-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8200798/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13226-021-00035-6
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