AFP and eGFR are related to early and late recurrence of HCC following antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND: An unexpected recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) sometimes occurs in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). However, the characteristics of patients with HCC recurrence may differ depending on time after DAA treatment. We aimed to identify risk factors related to HCC recurrence according to time after DAA treatment. METHODS: Of 1663 patients with HCV treated with a DAA, 199 patients had a previous history of HCC. We defined HCC recurrence within 1 year after DAA treatment as ‘early recurrence’, and recurrence more than 1 year after as ‘late recurrence’. The different risk factors between the early and late phases of HCC recurrence after the end of DAA therapy were investigated. RESULTS: Ninety-seven patients experienced HCC recurrence during the study period. Incidences of recurrence were 29.8, 41.0, and 53.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively, after the end of DAA therapy. Multivariate analysis identified post-treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) as an independent factor contributing to HCC recurrence in the early phase (hazard ratio, 1.056; 95% confidence interval, 1.026–1.087, p < 0.001) and post-treatment estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.96–0.99, p = 0.032) as a predictor of HCC recurrence in the late phase. CONCLUSION: Patients with higher post-treatment AFP in the early phase and those with lower post-treatment eGFR in the late phase had a high risk of HCC recurrence. The risk factors associated with HCC recurrence after DAA treatment were different between the early and late phases. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08401-7.