Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context

We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Paul, Subhendu, Lorin, Emmanuel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8206095/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34131198
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8
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author Paul, Subhendu
Lorin, Emmanuel
author_facet Paul, Subhendu
Lorin, Emmanuel
author_sort Paul, Subhendu
collection PubMed
description We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.
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spelling pubmed-82060952021-06-16 Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context Paul, Subhendu Lorin, Emmanuel Sci Rep Article We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-06-15 /pmc/articles/PMC8206095/ /pubmed/34131198 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Paul, Subhendu
Lorin, Emmanuel
Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_full Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_fullStr Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_full_unstemmed Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_short Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_sort distribution of incubation periods of covid-19 in the canadian context
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8206095/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34131198
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8
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AT lorinemmanuel distributionofincubationperiodsofcovid19inthecanadiancontext

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