The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence i...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Dimeglio, Chloé, Loubes, Jean-Michel, Miedougé, Marcel, Herin, Fabrice, Soulat, Jean-Marc, Izopet, Jacques
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8206100/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34131234
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92131-0
Descripción
Sumario:The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient’s symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution.

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