The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence i...

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Autores principales: Dimeglio, Chloé, Loubes, Jean-Michel, Miedougé, Marcel, Herin, Fabrice, Soulat, Jean-Marc, Izopet, Jacques
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8206100/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34131234
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92131-0
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author Dimeglio, Chloé
Loubes, Jean-Michel
Miedougé, Marcel
Herin, Fabrice
Soulat, Jean-Marc
Izopet, Jacques
author_facet Dimeglio, Chloé
Loubes, Jean-Michel
Miedougé, Marcel
Herin, Fabrice
Soulat, Jean-Marc
Izopet, Jacques
author_sort Dimeglio, Chloé
collection PubMed
description The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient’s symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution.
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spelling pubmed-82061002021-06-16 The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics Dimeglio, Chloé Loubes, Jean-Michel Miedougé, Marcel Herin, Fabrice Soulat, Jean-Marc Izopet, Jacques Sci Rep Article The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient’s symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-06-15 /pmc/articles/PMC8206100/ /pubmed/34131234 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92131-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Dimeglio, Chloé
Loubes, Jean-Michel
Miedougé, Marcel
Herin, Fabrice
Soulat, Jean-Marc
Izopet, Jacques
The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics
title The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics
title_full The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics
title_fullStr The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics
title_full_unstemmed The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics
title_short The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics
title_sort real seroprevalence of sars-cov-2 in france and its consequences for virus dynamics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8206100/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34131234
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92131-0
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