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Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review

Priority setting for infectious disease control is increasingly concerned with physical input constraints and other real-world restrictions on implementation and on the decision process. These health system constraints determine the ‘feasibility’ of interventions and hence impact. However, consideri...

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Autores principales: Bozzani, Fiammetta M., Vassall, Anna, Gomez, Gabriela B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8207450/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33761447
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100450
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author Bozzani, Fiammetta M.
Vassall, Anna
Gomez, Gabriela B.
author_facet Bozzani, Fiammetta M.
Vassall, Anna
Gomez, Gabriela B.
author_sort Bozzani, Fiammetta M.
collection PubMed
description Priority setting for infectious disease control is increasingly concerned with physical input constraints and other real-world restrictions on implementation and on the decision process. These health system constraints determine the ‘feasibility’ of interventions and hence impact. However, considering them within mathematical models places additional demands on model structure and relies on data availability. This review aims to provide an overview of published methods for considering constraints in mathematical models of infectious disease. We systematically searched the literature to identify studies employing dynamic transmission models to assess interventions in any infectious disease and geographical area that included non-financial constraints to implementation. Information was extracted on the types of constraints considered and how these were identified and characterised, as well as on the model structures and techniques for incorporating the constraints. A total of 36 studies were retained for analysis. While most dynamic transmission models identified were deterministic compartmental models, stochastic models and agent-based simulations were also successfully used for assessing the effects of non-financial constraints on priority setting. Studies aimed to assess reductions in intervention coverage (and programme costs) as a result of constraints preventing successful roll-out and scale-up, and/or to calculate costs and resources needed to relax these constraints and achieve desired coverage levels. We identified three approaches for incorporating constraints within the analyses: (i) estimation within the disease transmission model; (ii) linking disease transmission and health system models; (iii) optimising under constraints (other than the budget). The review highlighted the viability of expanding model-based priority setting to consider health system constraints. We show strengths and limitations in current approaches to identify and quantify locally-relevant constraints, ranging from simple assumptions to structured elicitation and operational models. Overall, there is a clear need for transparency in the way feasibility is defined as a decision criteria for its systematic operationalisation within models.
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spelling pubmed-82074502021-06-23 Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review Bozzani, Fiammetta M. Vassall, Anna Gomez, Gabriela B. Epidemics Article Priority setting for infectious disease control is increasingly concerned with physical input constraints and other real-world restrictions on implementation and on the decision process. These health system constraints determine the ‘feasibility’ of interventions and hence impact. However, considering them within mathematical models places additional demands on model structure and relies on data availability. This review aims to provide an overview of published methods for considering constraints in mathematical models of infectious disease. We systematically searched the literature to identify studies employing dynamic transmission models to assess interventions in any infectious disease and geographical area that included non-financial constraints to implementation. Information was extracted on the types of constraints considered and how these were identified and characterised, as well as on the model structures and techniques for incorporating the constraints. A total of 36 studies were retained for analysis. While most dynamic transmission models identified were deterministic compartmental models, stochastic models and agent-based simulations were also successfully used for assessing the effects of non-financial constraints on priority setting. Studies aimed to assess reductions in intervention coverage (and programme costs) as a result of constraints preventing successful roll-out and scale-up, and/or to calculate costs and resources needed to relax these constraints and achieve desired coverage levels. We identified three approaches for incorporating constraints within the analyses: (i) estimation within the disease transmission model; (ii) linking disease transmission and health system models; (iii) optimising under constraints (other than the budget). The review highlighted the viability of expanding model-based priority setting to consider health system constraints. We show strengths and limitations in current approaches to identify and quantify locally-relevant constraints, ranging from simple assumptions to structured elicitation and operational models. Overall, there is a clear need for transparency in the way feasibility is defined as a decision criteria for its systematic operationalisation within models. Elsevier 2021-06 /pmc/articles/PMC8207450/ /pubmed/33761447 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100450 Text en © 2021 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Bozzani, Fiammetta M.
Vassall, Anna
Gomez, Gabriela B.
Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review
title Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review
title_full Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review
title_fullStr Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review
title_full_unstemmed Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review
title_short Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review
title_sort building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: a systematic literature review
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8207450/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33761447
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100450
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