Stay in treatment: Predicting dropout from pediatric weight management study protocol

INTRODUCTION: Childhood obesity is a serious public health concern. Multidisciplinary pediatric weight management programs have been deemed effective. However, effectiveness of these programs is impacted by attrition, limiting health benefits to children, and inefficiently utilizing scarce resources. METHODS: We have developed a model (the Outcomes Forecasting System, OFS) that isolates variables associated with attrition from pediatric weight management, with the potential to forecast participant dropout. In Aim 1, we will increase the power and precision of the OFS and then validate the model through the consistent acquisition of key patient, family, and treatment data, from three different weight management sites. In Aim 2, external validity will be established through the application of the OFS at a fourth pediatric weight management program. Aim 3 will be a pilot clinical trial, incorporating an intervention built on the results of Aims 1 and 2 and utilizing the OFS to reduce attrition. DISCUSSION: A greater understanding of the patient, family, and disease-specific factors that predict dropout from pediatric weight management can be utilized to prevent attrition. The goal of the current study is to refine the OFS to a level of precision and efficiency to be a valuable tool to any weight management program. By identifying the most pertinent factors driving attrition across weight management sites, new avenues for treatment will be identified. This study will result in a valuable forecasting tool that will be applicable for diverse programs and populations, decrease program costs, and improve patient retention, adherence, and outcomes. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT04364282.