Return on investment of self-measured blood pressure is associated with its use in preventing false diagnoses, not monitoring hypertension

Previous research indicates that patient self-measured blood pressure (SMBP) is a cost-effective strategy for improving hypertension (HTN) diagnosis and control. However, it is unknown which specific uses of SMBP produce the most value. Our goal is to estimate, from an insurance perspective, the return-on-investment (ROI) and net present value associated with coverage of SMBP devices when used (a) only to diagnose HTN, (b) only to select and titrate medication, (c) only to monitor HTN treatment, or (d) as a bundle with all three uses combined. We employed national sample of claims data, Framingham risk predictions, and published sensitivity-specificity values of SMBP and clinic blood-pressure measurement to extend a previously-developed local decision-analytic simulation model. We then used the extended model to determine which uses of SMBP produce the most economic value when scaled to the U.S. adult population. We found that coverage of SMBP devices yielded positive ROIs for insurers in the short-run and at lifetime horizon when the three uses of SMBP were considered together. When each use was evaluated separately, positive returns were seen when SMBP was used for diagnosis or for medication selection and titration. However, returns were negative when SMBP was used exclusively to monitor HTN treatment. When scaled to the U.S. population, adoption of SMBP would prevent nearly 16.5 million false positive HTN diagnoses, thereby improving quality of care while saving insurance plans $254 per member. A strong economic case exists for insurers to cover the cost of SMBP devices, but it matters how devices are used.