Transarterial Chemoembolization in Treatment-Naïve and Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity-Matched Outcome and Risk Signature Analysis

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in the treatment of patients with treatment-naïve hepatocellular carcinoma (TN-HCC) and recurrent HCC (R-HCC). In addition, risk signature analysis was performed to accurately assess patients’ recurrence and survival. METHODS: This retrospective study assessed the consecutive medical records of TN-HCC and R-HCC patients from January 2014 to December 2018. In order to reduce the patient selection bias, propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was applied. Conditional inference tree was used to establish a risk signature. RESULTS: A total of 401 eligible patients were included in our study, including 346 patients in the TN-HCC group and 55 patients in the R-HCC group. Forty-seven pairs of patients were chosen after the PSM analysis. Before the PSM analysis, the objective tumor regression (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) of R-HCC patients were better than that of TN-HCC patients; however, after the PSM analysis, there was no significant difference in the ORR and DCR between the two groups (P>0.05). Before the PSM analysis, the median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in the R-HCC group were significantly greater than those of the TN-HCC group (OS: 24 months vs. 18 months, P =0.004; PFS: 9 months vs. 6 months, P =0.012). However, after the PSM analysis, the median OS and PFS in the R-HCC group were inferior to those in the TN-HCC group (OS: 24 months vs. 33 months, P= 0.0035; PFS: 10 months vs. 12 months, P = 0.01). The conditional inference tree divided patients into different subgroups according to tumor size, BCLC stage, and TACE sessions and shared different hazards ratio to recurrence or survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with R-HCC treated with TACE achieved satisfactory results, although survival after the PSM analysis was not as good as in the TN-HCC group. In addition, risk signature based on conditional inference tree analysis can more accurately predict the recurrence and survival in both groups of patients.