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Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism
The prediction of oil demand is an important issue related to national energy security and economic development. With the COVID-19 outbreak, the international oil price fluctuates sharply, and oil consumption growth slows down. Therefore, accurate prediction of oil demand plays an important practica...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8215098/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10553-021-01250-x |
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author | Huang, Yanrong Li, Shuaihao Wang, Rui Zhao, Zhijiang Huang, Bin Wei, Bo Zhu, Guangming |
author_facet | Huang, Yanrong Li, Shuaihao Wang, Rui Zhao, Zhijiang Huang, Bin Wei, Bo Zhu, Guangming |
author_sort | Huang, Yanrong |
collection | PubMed |
description | The prediction of oil demand is an important issue related to national energy security and economic development. With the COVID-19 outbreak, the international oil price fluctuates sharply, and oil consumption growth slows down. Therefore, accurate prediction of oil demand plays an important practical and theoretical role. In this paper, in accordance with the Chinese state policy stimulation of domestic demand for energy resources, we have selected 15 major factors and analyzed their influence on the domestic oil demand from the perspective of comprehensive tourism analysis. Based on the data analysis of oil consumption from 2000 to 2018, four neutral network methods are used to predict the influence of selected factors on oil consumption demand of China. The experimental results show that the best correlation is obtained between domestic tourism revenue and total tourism expenditure factors and oil demand, and the Layer Recurrent Neutral Network method has high prediction accuracy, stronger stability, and the best performance. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8215098 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82150982021-06-21 Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism Huang, Yanrong Li, Shuaihao Wang, Rui Zhao, Zhijiang Huang, Bin Wei, Bo Zhu, Guangming Chem Technol Fuels Oils Article The prediction of oil demand is an important issue related to national energy security and economic development. With the COVID-19 outbreak, the international oil price fluctuates sharply, and oil consumption growth slows down. Therefore, accurate prediction of oil demand plays an important practical and theoretical role. In this paper, in accordance with the Chinese state policy stimulation of domestic demand for energy resources, we have selected 15 major factors and analyzed their influence on the domestic oil demand from the perspective of comprehensive tourism analysis. Based on the data analysis of oil consumption from 2000 to 2018, four neutral network methods are used to predict the influence of selected factors on oil consumption demand of China. The experimental results show that the best correlation is obtained between domestic tourism revenue and total tourism expenditure factors and oil demand, and the Layer Recurrent Neutral Network method has high prediction accuracy, stronger stability, and the best performance. Springer US 2021-06-21 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8215098/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10553-021-01250-x Text en © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Article Huang, Yanrong Li, Shuaihao Wang, Rui Zhao, Zhijiang Huang, Bin Wei, Bo Zhu, Guangming Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism |
title | Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism |
title_full | Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism |
title_fullStr | Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism |
title_short | Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism |
title_sort | forecasting oil demand with the development of comprehensive tourism |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8215098/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10553-021-01250-x |
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