Folgen der COVID-19-Krise auf die kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen Beschäftigungs- und Entlohnungschancen nach Berufen

This paper presents the model system QINFORGE. By taking into account occupational mobility matrices, the model is able to show adaptation reactions between labour supply and demand at the occupational level in the short- and long-term. We use the model to illustrate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on employment and remuneration opportunities in occupations. For this purpose, we compare two scenarios. On the one hand, a “counterfactual scenario” extrapolates long-term behaviour and trends starting from the year 2019. The “baseline projection”, on the other hand, models the economic situation in the short term at the industry level. This stimulates model-based behavioural changes at the occupational level. The crisis will set back Germany’s economic performance by three years in the long-term. As the worsening labour market situation will also cause lower labour participation rates, especially among women, the number of the projected unemployed in the “baseline projection” for 2020 and 2021 will only rise by around 400,000 compared with the “counterfactual scenario”. In the long term, however, the scarce supply of labour will be an inhibiting factor for economic growth. In addition, the crisis will inhibit overall wage growth in the short and medium term The results of the model show that occupations in gastronomy, tourism, and art and culture are particularly affected by the crisis. From 2025, however, the wage and employment levels that would have been achieved in the “counterfactual scenario” will be reached. By contrast, the short-term wage increases in the health care occupations are anticipatory effects. In the long-term, the baseline-projection does not forecast higher wage levels than the “counterfactual scenario”. Nevertheless, the labour supply in the health care occupations, especially in nursing, could increase in the long term because of the crisis. However, this will be because the COVID 19 pandemic may reduce the employment and wage opportunities that are available to health care professionals outside of the health care sector.