Do the selection criteria of internal medicine residency program predict resident performance?

Background: Well-performing physician reflects the success of the residency program in selecting the best candidates for training. This study aimed to evaluate the selection criteria, mainly the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) results and applicants’ status as international or locally trained applicants, used by the medical education department and the internal medicine residency program in Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar to predict the residents’ performance during their training. Methods: A retrospective chart review was performed for three batches of graduates who started residency training in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Each group completed 4 years of training. The USMLE Step 2 CK status of the applicant, in-training exam (ITE) scores, formative evaluation scores, Arab Board written and clinical exams pass rate, and other indicators were analyzed. Statistical analysis included chi squares and independent t-test to identify associations. Multivariable analyses were conducted using logistic and linear regressions to test for adjusted associations. Results: The study included 118 (81 international/37 locally trained applicants) internal medicine residents. The ITE score correlated positively with the USMLE Step 2 CK score (r = 0.621, r = 0.587, r = 0.576, r = 0.571, p < 0.001) over the 4 years of training and among the international compared with locally trained applicants (p < 0.001). The rate of passing part 1 and 2 written exam of the Arab Board was higher in international than in local applicants, whereas clinical Arab Board exam and formative evaluation were not associated with any criteria. Conclusions: Higher USMLE Step 2 CK score correlated with better performance on ITE but not with other performance indicators, whereas international applicants did better in both ITE and Arab Board written exam than local applicants. These variables may provide reasonable predictors of well-performing physicians.