Historic range dynamics in Kaiser's mountain newt (Neurergus kaiseri): Insights from phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modeling

Vulnerable Kaiser's mountain newt, Neurergus kaiseri, is endemic to highland streams, springs, and pools of the southwestern Zagros mountain, Iran. The present study aimed to use an integration of phylogeographical and species distribution modeling (SDM) approaches to provide new insights into the evolutionary history of the species throughout Quaternary climate oscillations. The phylogeographical analysis was followed by analyzing two mitochondrial DNA (mt‐DNA) markers including 127 control region (D‐loop) and 72 NADH dehydrogenase 2 (ND2) sequences from 15 populations in the entire species range that were obtained from GenBank. Potential recent and past distribution (the Last Glacial Maximum, LGM, 21 Kya and the Mid‐Holocene, 6 Kya) reconstructed by ensemble SDM using nine algorithms with CCSM4, MIROC‐ESM, and MPI‐ESM‐P models. N. kaiseri displayed two distinct lineages in the northern and southern regions that diverged in the Early‐Pleistocene. The demographics analysis showed signs of a slight increase in effective population size for both northern and southern populations in the Mid‐Pleistocene. Biogeography analysis showed that both vicariance and dispersal events played an important role in the formation of recent species distribution of N. kaiseri. Based on SDM projection onto paleoclimatic data, N. kaiseri displayed a scenario of past range expansion that followed by postglacial contraction. The models showed that the distribution range of the species may have shifted to a lower altitude during LGM while with amelioration of climatic during Mid‐Holocene to recent conditions caused the species to shift to the higher altitude. The findings of the current study support the hypothesis that the Zagros mountains​ may be acting as climatic refugia and play an important role in the protection of isolated populations during climate oscillations.