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Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species

Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may not have b...

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Autores principales: Tremblay, Philippe, MacMillan, Heath A., Kharouba, Heather M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8216912/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34188890
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7663
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author Tremblay, Philippe
MacMillan, Heath A.
Kharouba, Heather M.
author_facet Tremblay, Philippe
MacMillan, Heath A.
Kharouba, Heather M.
author_sort Tremblay, Philippe
collection PubMed
description Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may not have become cold‐tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field‐collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold‐induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point, critical thermal minimum, and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae were determined to be tolerant of chilling but generally die at temperatures below their SCP, suggesting they are chill‐tolerant or modestly freeze‐avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modeling revealed that growing degree‐days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modeling results were consistent with our experimental results: Low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts.
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spelling pubmed-82169122021-06-28 Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species Tremblay, Philippe MacMillan, Heath A. Kharouba, Heather M. Ecol Evol Original Research Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may not have become cold‐tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field‐collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold‐induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point, critical thermal minimum, and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae were determined to be tolerant of chilling but generally die at temperatures below their SCP, suggesting they are chill‐tolerant or modestly freeze‐avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modeling revealed that growing degree‐days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modeling results were consistent with our experimental results: Low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-05-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8216912/ /pubmed/34188890 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7663 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Research
Tremblay, Philippe
MacMillan, Heath A.
Kharouba, Heather M.
Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
title Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
title_full Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
title_fullStr Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
title_full_unstemmed Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
title_short Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
title_sort autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8216912/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34188890
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7663
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