Development of a nomogram predicting metastatic disease and the assessment of NCCN, AUA and EAU guideline recommendations for bone imaging in prostate cancer patients

PURPOSE: We identified the risk predictors related to prostate cancer (PCa) metastasis using contemporary data in a community setting. Then, we assessed the performance of indications for bone imaging recommended from the NCCN, AUA and EAU guidelines. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2010–2015), we collected clinicopathological information from PCa patients. The associated risk factors found by multivariate analyses were used to establish forest plots and nomograms for distant metastasis (DM) and bone(s)-only metastasis (BM). We next evaluated the NCCN, AUA and EAU guidelines indications for the discovery of certain subgroups of patients who should receive bone imaging. RESULTS: A total of 120,136 patients were eligible for analysis, of which 96.7% had no metastasis. The odds ratios of positive DM and BM results were 13.90 times and 15.87 times higher in patients with a histologic grade group (GG) 5 than in the reference group. The concordance index of the nomograms based on race, age, T/N stage, PSA, GG, percentage of positive scores for predicting DM and BM was 0.942 and 0.928, respectively. Performance of the NCCN, AUA and EAU guidelines was high and relatively similar in terms of sensitivity (93.2–96.9%) and negative predictive value (99.8–99.9%). NCCN guidelines had the highest accuracy, specificity and positive likelihood ratio, while negative likelihood ratio was lowest in AUA guideline. CONCLUSION: Histologic GG 5 was the foremost factor for DM and BM. NCCN-based recommendations may be more rational in clinical practice. Nomograms predicting metastasis demonstrate high accuracy. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00345-020-03363-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.