A composite sleep and pulmonary phenotype predicting hypertension

BACKGROUND: Multiple aspects of sleep and Sleep Disordered Breathing (SDB) have been linked to hypertension. However, the standard measure of SDB, the Apnoea Hypopnea Index (AHI), has not identified patients likely to experience large improvements in blood pressure with SDB treatment. METHODS: To use machine learning to select sleep and pulmonary measures associated with hypertension development when considered jointly, we applied feature screening followed by Elastic Net penalized regression in association with incident hypertension using a wide array of polysomnography measures, and lung function, derived for the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS). FINDINGS: At baseline, n=860 SHHS individuals with complete data were age 61 years, on average. Of these, 291 developed hypertension ~5 years later. A combination of pulmonary function and 18 sleep phenotypes predicted incident hypertension (OR=1.43, 95% confidence interval [1.14, 1.80] per 1 standard deviation (SD) of the phenotype), while the apnoea-hypopnea index (AHI) had low evidence of association with incident hypertension (OR =1.13, 95% confidence interval [0.97, 1.33] per 1 SD). In a generalization analysis in 923 individuals from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, aged 65 on average with 615 individuals with hypertension, the new phenotype was cross-sectionally associated with hypertension (OR=1.26, 95% CI [1.10, 1.45]). INTERPRETATION: A unique combination of sleep and pulmonary function measures better predicts hypertension compared to the AHI. The composite measure included indices capturing apnoea and hypopnea event durations, with shorter event lengths associated with increased risk of hypertension. FUNDING: This research was supported by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) contracts HHSN268201500003I, N01-HC-95159, N01-HC-95160, N01-HC-95161, N01-HC-95162, N01-HC-95163, N01-HC-95164, N01-HC-95165, N01-HC-95166, N01-HC-95167, N01-HC-95168, and N01-HC-95169 and by National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences grants UL1-TR- 000040, UL1-TR-001079, and UL1-TR-001420. The MESA Sleep ancillary study was supported by NHLBI grant HL-56984. Pulmonary phenotyping in MESA was funded by NHLBI grants R01-HL077612 and R01-HL093081. This work was supported by NHLBI grant R35HL135818 to Susan Redline.