The rising tide of dementia deaths: triangulation of data from three routine data sources using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

BACKGROUND: Dementia is currently the leading certified underlying cause of death in England. We assess how dementia recording on Office for National Statistics death certificates (ONS) corresponded to recording in general practice records (GP) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). METHODS: Retrospective study of deaths (2001-15) in 153 English General Practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with linked ONS and HES records. RESULTS: Of 207,068 total deaths from any cause, 19,627 mentioned dementia on the death certificate with 10,253 as underlying cause; steady increases occurred from 2001 to 2015 (any mention 5.3 to 15.4 %, underlying cause 2.7 to 10 %). Including all data sources, recording of any dementia increased from 13.2 to 28.6 %. In 2015, only 53.8 % of people dying with dementia had dementia recorded on their death certificates. Among deaths mentioning dementia on the death certificate, the recording of a prior diagnosis of dementia in GP and HES rose markedly over the same period. In 2001, only 76.3 % had a prior diagnosis in GP and/or HES records; by 2015 this had risen to 95.7 %. However, over the same period the percentage of all deaths with dementia recorded in GP or HES but not mentioned on the death certificate rose from 7.9 to 13.3 %. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia recording in all data sources increased between 2001 and 2015. By 2015 the vast majority of deaths mentioning dementia had supporting evidence in primary and/or secondary care. However, death certificates were still providing an inadequate picture of the number of people dying with dementia. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-021-02306-7.