Cutaneous T-cell-attracting chemokine as a novel biomarker for predicting prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic, progressive fibrotic lung disease that leads to respiratory failure and death. Although there is a greater understanding of the etiology of this disease, accurately predicting the disease course in individual patients is still not possible. This study aimed to evaluate serum cytokines/chemokines as potential biomarkers that can predict outcomes in IPF patients. METHODS: A multi-institutional prospective two-stage discovery and validation design using two independent cohorts was adopted. For the discovery analysis, serum samples from 100 IPF patients and 32 healthy controls were examined using an unbiased, multiplex immunoassay of 48 cytokines/chemokines. The serum cytokine/chemokine values were compared between IPF patients and controls; the association between multiplex measurements and survival time was evaluated in IPF patients. In the validation analysis, the cytokines/chemokines identified in the discovery analysis were examined in serum samples from another 81 IPF patients to verify the ability of these cytokines/chemokines to predict survival. Immunohistochemical assessment of IPF-derived lung samples was also performed to determine where this novel biomarker is expressed. RESULTS: In the discovery cohort, 18 cytokines/chemokines were significantly elevated in sera from IPF patients compared with those from controls. Interleukin-1 receptor alpha (IL-1Rα), interleukin-8 (IL-8), macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha (MIP-1α), and cutaneous T-cell-attracting chemokine (CTACK) were associated with survival: IL-1Rα, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.04 per 10 units, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.01–1.07; IL-8, HR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.08; MIP-1α, HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.00–1.36; and CTACK, HR = 1.12 per 100 units, 95% CI 1.02–1.21. A replication analysis was performed only for CTACK because others were previously reported to be potential biomarkers of interstitial lung diseases. In the validation cohort, CTACK was associated with survival: HR = 1.14 per 100 units, 95% CI 1.01–1.28. Immunohistochemistry revealed the expression of CTACK and CC chemokine receptor 10 (a ligand of CTACK) in airway and type II alveolar epithelial cells of IPF patients but not in those of controls. CONCLUSIONS: CTACK is a novel prognostic biomarker of IPF. Trial registration None (because of no healthcare intervention) SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-021-01779-9.