A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond

Dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in India are different from other countries for her huge population and different administrative approaches. This paper presents a six compartments (SHIQRD) model with different time delays between them, to analyse and forecast the COVID-19 pandemic in India. The model...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Adhikary, Avishek, Pal, Avijit
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8221034/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.06.027
Descripción
Sumario:Dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in India are different from other countries for her huge population and different administrative approaches. This paper presents a six compartments (SHIQRD) model with different time delays between them, to analyse and forecast the COVID-19 pandemic in India. The model introduces separate compartments for ‘home-quarantined’, ‘quarantined infectious’, and ‘undetected infectious’ pertaining to the Indian scenario. It also incorporates incubation time, sample testing time, and recovery window as time delays between blocks. With the proposed model, reproduction number of different phases during lock-down are evaluated. Besides, dynamics of pandemic for the next one year are also explored.

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