A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond

Dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in India are different from other countries for her huge population and different administrative approaches. This paper presents a six compartments (SHIQRD) model with different time delays between them, to analyse and forecast the COVID-19 pandemic in India. The model...

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Autores principales: Adhikary, Avishek, Pal, Avijit
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8221034/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.06.027
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author Adhikary, Avishek
Pal, Avijit
author_facet Adhikary, Avishek
Pal, Avijit
author_sort Adhikary, Avishek
collection PubMed
description Dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in India are different from other countries for her huge population and different administrative approaches. This paper presents a six compartments (SHIQRD) model with different time delays between them, to analyse and forecast the COVID-19 pandemic in India. The model introduces separate compartments for ‘home-quarantined’, ‘quarantined infectious’, and ‘undetected infectious’ pertaining to the Indian scenario. It also incorporates incubation time, sample testing time, and recovery window as time delays between blocks. With the proposed model, reproduction number of different phases during lock-down are evaluated. Besides, dynamics of pandemic for the next one year are also explored.
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spelling pubmed-82210342021-06-23 A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond Adhikary, Avishek Pal, Avijit Alexandria Engineering Journal Article Dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in India are different from other countries for her huge population and different administrative approaches. This paper presents a six compartments (SHIQRD) model with different time delays between them, to analyse and forecast the COVID-19 pandemic in India. The model introduces separate compartments for ‘home-quarantined’, ‘quarantined infectious’, and ‘undetected infectious’ pertaining to the Indian scenario. It also incorporates incubation time, sample testing time, and recovery window as time delays between blocks. With the proposed model, reproduction number of different phases during lock-down are evaluated. Besides, dynamics of pandemic for the next one year are also explored. THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2022-02 2021-06-23 /pmc/articles/PMC8221034/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.06.027 Text en © 2021 THE AUTHORS Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Adhikary, Avishek
Pal, Avijit
A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond
title A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond
title_full A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond
title_fullStr A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond
title_full_unstemmed A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond
title_short A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond
title_sort six compartments with time-delay model shiqrd for the covid-19 pandemic in india: during lockdown and beyond
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8221034/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.06.027
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