A Five-Gene Prognostic Nomogram Predicting Disease-Free Survival of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most common type of thyroid tumor with a high recurrence rate. Here, we developed a nomogram to effectively predict postoperative disease-free survival (DFS) in DTC patients. METHODS: The mRNA expressions and clinical data of DTC patients were downloaded from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Seventy percent of patients were randomly selected as the training dataset, and thirty percent of patients were classified into the testing dataset. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was adopted to establish a nomogram to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DFS rate of DTC patients. RESULTS: A five-gene signature comprised of TENM1, FN1, APOD, F12, and BTNL8 genes was established to predict the DFS rate of DTC patients. Results from the concordance index (C-index), area under curve (AUC), and calibration curve showed that both the training dataset and the testing dataset exhibited good prediction ability, and they were superior to other traditional models. The risk score and distant metastasis (M) of the five-gene signature were independent risk factors that affected DTC recurrence. A nomogram that could predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DFS rate of DTC patients was established with a C-index of 0.801 (95% CI: 0.736, 0.866). CONCLUSION: Our study developed a prediction model based on the gene expression and clinical characteristics to predict the DFS rate of DTC patients, which may be applied to more accurately assess patient prognosis and individualized treatment.