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Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19

The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio betwe...

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Autores principales: Gu, Tianshu, Wang, Lishi, Xie, Ning, Meng, Xia, Li, Zhijun, Postlethwaite, Arnold, Aleya, Lotfi, Howard, Scott C., Gu, Weikuan, Wang, Yongjun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8222531/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34179029
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.585115
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author Gu, Tianshu
Wang, Lishi
Xie, Ning
Meng, Xia
Li, Zhijun
Postlethwaite, Arnold
Aleya, Lotfi
Howard, Scott C.
Gu, Weikuan
Wang, Yongjun
author_facet Gu, Tianshu
Wang, Lishi
Xie, Ning
Meng, Xia
Li, Zhijun
Postlethwaite, Arnold
Aleya, Lotfi
Howard, Scott C.
Gu, Weikuan
Wang, Yongjun
author_sort Gu, Tianshu
collection PubMed
description The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public.
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spelling pubmed-82225312021-06-25 Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19 Gu, Tianshu Wang, Lishi Xie, Ning Meng, Xia Li, Zhijun Postlethwaite, Arnold Aleya, Lotfi Howard, Scott C. Gu, Weikuan Wang, Yongjun Front Med (Lausanne) Medicine The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-06-10 /pmc/articles/PMC8222531/ /pubmed/34179029 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.585115 Text en Copyright © 2021 Gu, Wang, Xie, Meng, Li, Postlethwaite, Aleya, Howard, Gu and Wang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Medicine
Gu, Tianshu
Wang, Lishi
Xie, Ning
Meng, Xia
Li, Zhijun
Postlethwaite, Arnold
Aleya, Lotfi
Howard, Scott C.
Gu, Weikuan
Wang, Yongjun
Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19
title Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19
title_full Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19
title_fullStr Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19
title_short Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19
title_sort toward a country-based prediction model of covid-19 infections and deaths between disease apex and end: evidence from countries with contained numbers of covid-19
topic Medicine
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8222531/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34179029
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.585115
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