Predictive Value of Upper Extremity Outcome Measures After Stroke—A Systematic Review and Metaregression Analysis

A better understanding of motor recovery after stroke requires large-scale, longitudinal trials applying suitable assessments. Currently, there is an abundance of upper limb assessments used to quantify recovery. How well various assessments can describe upper limb function change over 1 year remains uncertain. A uniform and feasible standard would be beneficial to increase future studies' comparability on stroke recovery. This review describes which assessments are common in large-scale, longitudinal stroke trials and how these quantify the change in upper limb function from stroke onset up to 1 year. A systematic search for well-powered stroke studies identified upper limb assessments classifying motor recovery during the initial year after a stroke. A metaregression investigated the association between assessments and motor recovery within 1 year after stroke. Scores from nine common assessments and 4,433 patients were combined and transformed into a standardized recovery score. A mixed-effects model on recovery scores over time confirmed significant differences between assessments (P < 0.001), with improvement following the weeks after stroke present when measuring recovery using the Action Research Arm Test (β = 0.013), Box and Block test (β = 0.011), Fugl–Meyer Assessment (β = 0.007), or grip force test (β = 0.023). A last-observation-carried-forward analysis also highlighted the peg test (β = 0.017) and Rivermead Assessment (β = 0.011) as additional, valuable long-term outcome measures. Recovery patterns and, thus, trial outcomes are dependent on the assessment implemented. Future research should include multiple common assessments and continue data collection for a full year after stroke to facilitate the consensus process on assessments measuring upper limb recovery.