Health gains and financial protection from human papillomavirus vaccination in Ethiopia: findings from a modelling study

High out-of-pocket (OOP) medical expenses for cervical cancer (CC) can lead to catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) and medical impoverishment in many low-resource settings. There are 32 million women at risk for CC in Ethiopia, where CC screening is extremely limited. An evaluation of the population health and financial risk protection benefits, and their distributional consequences across socioeconomic groups, from human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination will be critical to support CC prevention efforts in this setting. We used a static cohort model that captures the main features of HPV vaccines and population demographics to project health and economic outcomes associated with routine HPV vaccination in Ethiopia. Health outcomes included the number of CC cases, and costs included vaccination and operational costs in 2015 US dollars over the years 2019–2118 and CC treatment costs over the lifetimes of cohorts eligible for vaccination in Ethiopia. We estimated the household OOP medical expenditures averted (assuming 68% of direct medical expenditures were financed OOP) and cases of CHE averted. A case of CHE was defined as 40% of household consumption expenditures, and the cases of CHE averted depended on wealth quintile, disease incidence, healthcare use and OOP payments. Our analysis shows that, assuming 100% vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 and 50% vaccination coverage, routine HPV vaccination could avert up to 970 000 cases of CC between 2019 and 2118, which translates to ∼932 000 lives saved. Additionally, routine HPV vaccination could avert 33 900 cases of CHE. Approximately one-third of health benefits would accrue to the poorest wealth quintile, whereas 50% of financial risk protection benefits would accrue to this quintile. HPV vaccination can reduce disparities in CC incidence, mortality and household health expenditures. This understanding and our findings can help policymakers in decisions regarding targeted CC control efforts and investment in a routine HPV vaccination programme following an initial catch-up programme.