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Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces

This article estimates population infection rates from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across four Canadian provinces from late March to early May 2020. The analysis combines daily data on the number of conducted tests and diagnosed cases with a methodology that corrects for non-random testing....

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Benatia, David, Godefroy, Raphael, Lewis, Joshua
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: University of Toronto Press 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8228716/
http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2020-035
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author Benatia, David
Godefroy, Raphael
Lewis, Joshua
author_facet Benatia, David
Godefroy, Raphael
Lewis, Joshua
author_sort Benatia, David
collection PubMed
description This article estimates population infection rates from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across four Canadian provinces from late March to early May 2020. The analysis combines daily data on the number of conducted tests and diagnosed cases with a methodology that corrects for non-random testing. We estimate the relationship between daily changes in the number of conducted tests and the fraction of positive cases in the non-random sample (typically less than 1 percent of the population) and apply this gradient to extrapolate the predicted fraction of positive cases if testing were expanded to the entire population. Over the sample period, the estimated population infection rates were 1.7–2.6 percent in Quebec, 0.7–1.4 percent in Ontario, 0.5–1.2 percent in Alberta, and 0.2–0.4 percent in British Columbia. In each province, these estimates are substantially below the average positive case rate, consistent with non-random testing of higher-risk populations. The results also imply widespread undiagnosed COVID-19 infection. For each identified case by mid-April, we estimate there were roughly 12 population infections.
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spelling pubmed-82287162021-06-28 Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces Benatia, David Godefroy, Raphael Lewis, Joshua Can Public Policy Articles This article estimates population infection rates from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across four Canadian provinces from late March to early May 2020. The analysis combines daily data on the number of conducted tests and diagnosed cases with a methodology that corrects for non-random testing. We estimate the relationship between daily changes in the number of conducted tests and the fraction of positive cases in the non-random sample (typically less than 1 percent of the population) and apply this gradient to extrapolate the predicted fraction of positive cases if testing were expanded to the entire population. Over the sample period, the estimated population infection rates were 1.7–2.6 percent in Quebec, 0.7–1.4 percent in Ontario, 0.5–1.2 percent in Alberta, and 0.2–0.4 percent in British Columbia. In each province, these estimates are substantially below the average positive case rate, consistent with non-random testing of higher-risk populations. The results also imply widespread undiagnosed COVID-19 infection. For each identified case by mid-April, we estimate there were roughly 12 population infections. University of Toronto Press 2020-10-07 2020-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8228716/ http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2020-035 Text en © Canadian Public Policy / Analyse de politiques This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for reuse and analysis with acknowledgement of the original source.
spellingShingle Articles
Benatia, David
Godefroy, Raphael
Lewis, Joshua
Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces
title Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces
title_full Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces
title_fullStr Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces
title_full_unstemmed Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces
title_short Estimates of COVID-19 Cases across Four Canadian Provinces
title_sort estimates of covid-19 cases across four canadian provinces
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8228716/
http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2020-035
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