Efficacy of limited antiviral treatment, testing, hospitalization, and social distancing for COVID-19 pandemic

The control measures of a pandemic must be cautiously evaluated, especially when resources are “limited”. A model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics is applied to assess the impact of antiviral treatment, testing, hospitalization, and social distancing. Under the assumption of “unlimited” resources, five control strategies involving social distancing, testing, hospitalization, and antiviral treatment are tested. Then these “optimal” policies are sought in the case of limited resources on behalf of a COVID-19 pandemic scenario. The amplitude of peak epidemics will often be minimized by executing strategies from the beginning of a pandemic, spreading the epidemics’ greatest impact over a longer time frame. Therefore, the timing and potency of control measures can reduce the pressure on the system during the top of the epidemic through the pandemic, decreasing the pressure on the healthcare infrastructure. In case of limited access to antiviral supplies, the role of testing, hospitalization, and social distancing strategies is emphasized in this study.