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Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval,...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2021
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8235921/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34176029 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-021-01628-9 |
Sumario: | We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic. |
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