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Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention

We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval,...

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Autor principal: Ketcheson, David I.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8235921/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34176029
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-021-01628-9
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author Ketcheson, David I.
author_facet Ketcheson, David I.
author_sort Ketcheson, David I.
collection PubMed
description We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-82359212021-06-28 Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention Ketcheson, David I. J Math Biol Article We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-06-26 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8235921/ /pubmed/34176029 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-021-01628-9 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Ketcheson, David I.
Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
title Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
title_full Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
title_fullStr Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
title_full_unstemmed Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
title_short Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
title_sort optimal control of an sir epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8235921/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34176029
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-021-01628-9
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