Cargando…

Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study

BACKGROUND: The difference in smoking across socioeconomic groups is a major cause of health inequality. This study projected future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status, and revealed what is needed to achieve the tobacco-free ambition (TFA) by 2030 in England. METHODS: Using data from multipl...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Song, Fujian, Elwell-Sutton, Tim, Naughton, Felix, Gentry, Sarah
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8237189/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32447314
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055490
_version_ 1783714680576933888
author Song, Fujian
Elwell-Sutton, Tim
Naughton, Felix
Gentry, Sarah
author_facet Song, Fujian
Elwell-Sutton, Tim
Naughton, Felix
Gentry, Sarah
author_sort Song, Fujian
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The difference in smoking across socioeconomic groups is a major cause of health inequality. This study projected future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status, and revealed what is needed to achieve the tobacco-free ambition (TFA) by 2030 in England. METHODS: Using data from multiple sources, the adult (≥18 years) population in England was separated into subgroups by smoking and highest educational qualification (HEQ). A discrete time state-transition model was used to project future smoking prevalence by HEQ deterministically and stochastically. RESULTS: In a status quo scenario, smoking prevalence in England is projected to be 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 9.1% to 12.9%) by 2022, 7.8% (5.5% to 11.0%) by 2030 and 6.0% (3.7% to 9.6%) by 2040. The absolute difference in smoking rate between low and high HEQ is reduced from 12.2% in 2016 to 7.9% by 2030, but the relative inequality (low/high HEQ ratio) is increased from 2.48 in 2016 to 3.06 by 2030. When applying 2016 initiation/relapse rates, achievement of the TFA target requires no changes to future cessation rates among adults with high qualifications, but increased rates of 37% and 149%, respectively, in adults with intermediate and low qualifications. CONCLUSIONS: If the current trends continue, smoking prevalence in England is projected to decline in the future, but with substantial differences across socioeconomic groups. Absolute inequalities in smoking are likely to decline and relative inequalities in smoking are likely to increase in future. The achievement of England’s TFA will require the reduction of both absolute and relative inequalities in smoking by socioeconomic status.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8237189
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher BMJ Publishing Group
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-82371892021-07-09 Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study Song, Fujian Elwell-Sutton, Tim Naughton, Felix Gentry, Sarah Tob Control Original Research BACKGROUND: The difference in smoking across socioeconomic groups is a major cause of health inequality. This study projected future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status, and revealed what is needed to achieve the tobacco-free ambition (TFA) by 2030 in England. METHODS: Using data from multiple sources, the adult (≥18 years) population in England was separated into subgroups by smoking and highest educational qualification (HEQ). A discrete time state-transition model was used to project future smoking prevalence by HEQ deterministically and stochastically. RESULTS: In a status quo scenario, smoking prevalence in England is projected to be 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 9.1% to 12.9%) by 2022, 7.8% (5.5% to 11.0%) by 2030 and 6.0% (3.7% to 9.6%) by 2040. The absolute difference in smoking rate between low and high HEQ is reduced from 12.2% in 2016 to 7.9% by 2030, but the relative inequality (low/high HEQ ratio) is increased from 2.48 in 2016 to 3.06 by 2030. When applying 2016 initiation/relapse rates, achievement of the TFA target requires no changes to future cessation rates among adults with high qualifications, but increased rates of 37% and 149%, respectively, in adults with intermediate and low qualifications. CONCLUSIONS: If the current trends continue, smoking prevalence in England is projected to decline in the future, but with substantial differences across socioeconomic groups. Absolute inequalities in smoking are likely to decline and relative inequalities in smoking are likely to increase in future. The achievement of England’s TFA will require the reduction of both absolute and relative inequalities in smoking by socioeconomic status. BMJ Publishing Group 2021-07 2020-05-23 /pmc/articles/PMC8237189/ /pubmed/32447314 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055490 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Original Research
Song, Fujian
Elwell-Sutton, Tim
Naughton, Felix
Gentry, Sarah
Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study
title Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study
title_full Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study
title_fullStr Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study
title_short Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study
title_sort future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in england: a computational modelling study
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8237189/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32447314
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055490
work_keys_str_mv AT songfujian futuresmokingprevalencebysocioeconomicstatusinenglandacomputationalmodellingstudy
AT elwellsuttontim futuresmokingprevalencebysocioeconomicstatusinenglandacomputationalmodellingstudy
AT naughtonfelix futuresmokingprevalencebysocioeconomicstatusinenglandacomputationalmodellingstudy
AT gentrysarah futuresmokingprevalencebysocioeconomicstatusinenglandacomputationalmodellingstudy