Ethnically Disparate Disease Progression and Outcomes among Acute Rheumatic Fever Patients in New Zealand, 1989–2015

We investigated outcomes for patients born after 1983 and hospitalized with initial acute rheumatic fever (ARF) in New Zealand during 1989–2012. We linked ARF progression outcome data (recurrent hospitalization for ARF, hospitalization for rheumatic heart disease [RHD], and death from circulatory causes) for 1989–2015. Retrospective analysis identified initial RHD patients <40 years of age who were hospitalized during 2010–2015 and previously hospitalized for ARF. Most (86.4%) of the 2,182 initial ARF patients did not experience disease progression by the end of 2015. Progression probability after 26.8 years of theoretical follow-up was 24.0%; probability of death, 1.0%. Progression was more rapid and ≈2 times more likely for indigenous Māori or Pacific Islander patients. Of 435 initial RHD patients, 82.2% had not been previously hospitalized for ARF. This young cohort demonstrated low mortality rates but considerable illness, especially among underserved populations. A national patient register could help monitor, prevent, and reduce ARF progression.