Changing Drivers of Mortality Among Patients Referred for Cardiac Stress Testing

OBJECTIVE: To identify temporal shifts in coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factor profiles, clinical parameters, and corresponding mortality rates among patients referred for radionuclide stress testing over 22 years. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We assessed 39,750 patients with suspected CAD (“diagnostic” patients) and 10,982 patients with known CAD who underwent radionuclide stress testing between January 2, 1991, and December 31, 2012, and were followed up for at least 5 years (median, 12.7 years). RESULTS: Among both diagnostic patients and those with known CAD, there was a marked temporal decline in typical angina and myocardial ischemia. However, several risk factors for disease progressively increased, including diabetes, obesity, and hypertension. In addition, the need to perform pharmacological testing in lieu of exercise increased markedly between the first and fourth epochs among both diagnostic patients (from 26.5% [1634 of 6176] to 53.0% [5781 of 10,908]; P<.001) and patients with known CAD (from 31.1% [999 of 3213] to 75.5% [1405 of 1860]; P<.001). The net effect of these competing positive and negative risk factor trends was no change in the adjusted annualized rate of mortality over the temporal span in our study, ranging from 1.57% per year in 1991-1995 to 1.76% per year in 2006-2012 among diagnostic patients and from 2.46% per year to 2.75% per year during the same intervals among patients with known CAD. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest a marked contemporary shift in the drivers of all-cause mortality among patients undergoing cardiac stress tests away from such factors as typical angina and inducible myocardial ischemia, which are declining in prevalence, and toward such factors as diabetes and an inability to perform exercise, which are increasing in prevalence.