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Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Mobility data have demonstrated major changes in human movement patterns in response to COVID-19 and associated interventions in many countries. This can involve sub-national redistribution, short-term relocations as well as international migration. In this paper, we combine detailed location data f...

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Autores principales: Gibbs, Hamish, Waterlow, Naomi R, Cheshire, James, Danon, Leon, Liu, Yang, Grundy, Chris, Kucharski, Adam J., Eggo, Rosalind M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8240694/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34189539
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.22.21259336
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author Gibbs, Hamish
Waterlow, Naomi R
Cheshire, James
Danon, Leon
Liu, Yang
Grundy, Chris
Kucharski, Adam J.
Eggo, Rosalind M.
author_facet Gibbs, Hamish
Waterlow, Naomi R
Cheshire, James
Danon, Leon
Liu, Yang
Grundy, Chris
Kucharski, Adam J.
Eggo, Rosalind M.
author_sort Gibbs, Hamish
collection PubMed
description Mobility data have demonstrated major changes in human movement patterns in response to COVID-19 and associated interventions in many countries. This can involve sub-national redistribution, short-term relocations as well as international migration. In this paper, we combine detailed location data from Facebook measuring the location of approximately 6 million daily active Facebook users in 5km(2) tiles in the UK with census-derived population estimates to measure population mobility and redistribution. We provide time-varying population estimates and assess spatial population changes with respect to population density and four key reference dates in 2020 (First lockdown, End of term, Beginning of term, Christmas). We also show how population estimates derived from the distribution of Facebook users vary compared to mid-2020 small area population estimates by the UK national statistics agencies. We estimate that between March 2020 and March 2021, the total population of the UK declined and we identify important spatial variations in this population change, showing that low-density areas have experienced lower population decreases than urban areas. We estimate that, for the top 10% highest population tiles, the population has decreased by 6.6%. Further, we provide evidence that geographic redistributions of population within the UK coincide with dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions including lockdowns and movement restrictions, as well as seasonal patterns of migration around holiday dates. The methods used in this study reveal significant changes in population distribution at high spatial and temporal resolutions that have not previously been quantified by available demographic surveys in the UK. We found early indicators of potential longer-term changes in the population distribution of the UK although it is not clear if these changes may persist after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-82406942022-12-15 Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic Gibbs, Hamish Waterlow, Naomi R Cheshire, James Danon, Leon Liu, Yang Grundy, Chris Kucharski, Adam J. Eggo, Rosalind M. medRxiv Article Mobility data have demonstrated major changes in human movement patterns in response to COVID-19 and associated interventions in many countries. This can involve sub-national redistribution, short-term relocations as well as international migration. In this paper, we combine detailed location data from Facebook measuring the location of approximately 6 million daily active Facebook users in 5km(2) tiles in the UK with census-derived population estimates to measure population mobility and redistribution. We provide time-varying population estimates and assess spatial population changes with respect to population density and four key reference dates in 2020 (First lockdown, End of term, Beginning of term, Christmas). We also show how population estimates derived from the distribution of Facebook users vary compared to mid-2020 small area population estimates by the UK national statistics agencies. We estimate that between March 2020 and March 2021, the total population of the UK declined and we identify important spatial variations in this population change, showing that low-density areas have experienced lower population decreases than urban areas. We estimate that, for the top 10% highest population tiles, the population has decreased by 6.6%. Further, we provide evidence that geographic redistributions of population within the UK coincide with dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions including lockdowns and movement restrictions, as well as seasonal patterns of migration around holiday dates. The methods used in this study reveal significant changes in population distribution at high spatial and temporal resolutions that have not previously been quantified by available demographic surveys in the UK. We found early indicators of potential longer-term changes in the population distribution of the UK although it is not clear if these changes may persist after the COVID-19 pandemic. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2022-08-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8240694/ /pubmed/34189539 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.22.21259336 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator.
spellingShingle Article
Gibbs, Hamish
Waterlow, Naomi R
Cheshire, James
Danon, Leon
Liu, Yang
Grundy, Chris
Kucharski, Adam J.
Eggo, Rosalind M.
Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic
title Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic
title_short Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the uk during the covid-19 pandemic
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8240694/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34189539
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.22.21259336
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