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Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network
BACKGROUND: Deep neural networks learn from former experiences on a large scale and can be used to predict future disease activity as potential clinical decision support. AdaptiveNet is a novel adaptive recurrent neural network optimized to deal with heterogeneous and missing clinical data. OBJECTIV...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8241074/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34185794 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252289 |
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author | Kalweit, Maria Walker, Ulrich A. Finckh, Axel Müller, Rüdiger Kalweit, Gabriel Scherer, Almut Boedecker, Joschka Hügle, Thomas |
author_facet | Kalweit, Maria Walker, Ulrich A. Finckh, Axel Müller, Rüdiger Kalweit, Gabriel Scherer, Almut Boedecker, Joschka Hügle, Thomas |
author_sort | Kalweit, Maria |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Deep neural networks learn from former experiences on a large scale and can be used to predict future disease activity as potential clinical decision support. AdaptiveNet is a novel adaptive recurrent neural network optimized to deal with heterogeneous and missing clinical data. OBJECTIVE: We investigate AdaptiveNet for the prediction of individual disease activity in patients from a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) registry. METHODS: Demographic and disease characteristics from over 9500 patients and 65.000 visits from the Swiss Quality Management (SCQM) database were used to train and evaluate the network. Patient characteristics, clinical and patient reported outcomes, laboratory values and medication were used as input features. DAS28-BSR served as a target to predict active RA and future numeric individual disease activity by classification and regression. RESULTS: AdaptiveNet predicted active disease defined as DAS28-BSR >2.6 at the next visit with an overall accuracy of 75.6% (SD +- 0.7%) and a sensitivity and specificity of 84.2% (SD +- 1.6%) and 61.5% (SD +- 3.6%), respectively. Prediction performance was significantly higher in patients with a disease duration >3 years and positive rheumatoid factor. Regression allowed forecasting individual DAS28-BSR values with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.9 (SD +- 0.05). This corresponds to a 8% deviation between estimated and real DAS28-BSR values. Compared to linear regression, random forest and support vector machines, AdaptiveNet showed an increased performance of over 7% in MSE. Medication played a minor role in the prediction of RA disease activity. CONCLUSION: AdaptiveNet has a superior capacity to predict numeric RA disease activity compared to classical machine learning architectures. All investigated models had limitations in low specificity. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8241074 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82410742021-07-09 Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network Kalweit, Maria Walker, Ulrich A. Finckh, Axel Müller, Rüdiger Kalweit, Gabriel Scherer, Almut Boedecker, Joschka Hügle, Thomas PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Deep neural networks learn from former experiences on a large scale and can be used to predict future disease activity as potential clinical decision support. AdaptiveNet is a novel adaptive recurrent neural network optimized to deal with heterogeneous and missing clinical data. OBJECTIVE: We investigate AdaptiveNet for the prediction of individual disease activity in patients from a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) registry. METHODS: Demographic and disease characteristics from over 9500 patients and 65.000 visits from the Swiss Quality Management (SCQM) database were used to train and evaluate the network. Patient characteristics, clinical and patient reported outcomes, laboratory values and medication were used as input features. DAS28-BSR served as a target to predict active RA and future numeric individual disease activity by classification and regression. RESULTS: AdaptiveNet predicted active disease defined as DAS28-BSR >2.6 at the next visit with an overall accuracy of 75.6% (SD +- 0.7%) and a sensitivity and specificity of 84.2% (SD +- 1.6%) and 61.5% (SD +- 3.6%), respectively. Prediction performance was significantly higher in patients with a disease duration >3 years and positive rheumatoid factor. Regression allowed forecasting individual DAS28-BSR values with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.9 (SD +- 0.05). This corresponds to a 8% deviation between estimated and real DAS28-BSR values. Compared to linear regression, random forest and support vector machines, AdaptiveNet showed an increased performance of over 7% in MSE. Medication played a minor role in the prediction of RA disease activity. CONCLUSION: AdaptiveNet has a superior capacity to predict numeric RA disease activity compared to classical machine learning architectures. All investigated models had limitations in low specificity. Public Library of Science 2021-06-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8241074/ /pubmed/34185794 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252289 Text en © 2021 Kalweit et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Kalweit, Maria Walker, Ulrich A. Finckh, Axel Müller, Rüdiger Kalweit, Gabriel Scherer, Almut Boedecker, Joschka Hügle, Thomas Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network |
title | Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network |
title_full | Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network |
title_fullStr | Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network |
title_full_unstemmed | Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network |
title_short | Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network |
title_sort | personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8241074/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34185794 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252289 |
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