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COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic

This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a “normal epidemic curve” and also to a “log-normal curve/distribution”. For many years, textbooks and cours...

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Autores principales: Gonçalves, Luzia, Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral, Geraldes, Carlos, Marques, Tiago A., Sousa, Lisete
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Atlantis Press 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8242106/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33605119
http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001
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author Gonçalves, Luzia
Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral
Geraldes, Carlos
Marques, Tiago A.
Sousa, Lisete
author_facet Gonçalves, Luzia
Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral
Geraldes, Carlos
Marques, Tiago A.
Sousa, Lisete
author_sort Gonçalves, Luzia
collection PubMed
description This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a “normal epidemic curve” and also to a “log-normal curve/distribution”. For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the “one-size-fits-all solution”. Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions.
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spelling pubmed-82421062021-07-13 COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic Gonçalves, Luzia Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral Geraldes, Carlos Marques, Tiago A. Sousa, Lisete J Epidemiol Glob Health Perspective This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a “normal epidemic curve” and also to a “log-normal curve/distribution”. For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the “one-size-fits-all solution”. Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions. Atlantis Press 2021-06 /pmc/articles/PMC8242106/ /pubmed/33605119 http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) ).
spellingShingle Perspective
Gonçalves, Luzia
Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral
Geraldes, Carlos
Marques, Tiago A.
Sousa, Lisete
COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic
title COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic
title_full COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic
title_fullStr COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic
title_short COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic
title_sort covid-19: nothing is normal in this pandemic
topic Perspective
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8242106/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33605119
http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001
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