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COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic
This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a “normal epidemic curve” and also to a “log-normal curve/distribution”. For many years, textbooks and cours...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Atlantis Press
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8242106/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33605119 http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001 |
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author | Gonçalves, Luzia Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral Geraldes, Carlos Marques, Tiago A. Sousa, Lisete |
author_facet | Gonçalves, Luzia Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral Geraldes, Carlos Marques, Tiago A. Sousa, Lisete |
author_sort | Gonçalves, Luzia |
collection | PubMed |
description | This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a “normal epidemic curve” and also to a “log-normal curve/distribution”. For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the “one-size-fits-all solution”. Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8242106 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Atlantis Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82421062021-07-13 COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic Gonçalves, Luzia Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral Geraldes, Carlos Marques, Tiago A. Sousa, Lisete J Epidemiol Glob Health Perspective This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a “normal epidemic curve” and also to a “log-normal curve/distribution”. For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the “one-size-fits-all solution”. Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions. Atlantis Press 2021-06 /pmc/articles/PMC8242106/ /pubmed/33605119 http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) ). |
spellingShingle | Perspective Gonçalves, Luzia Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral Geraldes, Carlos Marques, Tiago A. Sousa, Lisete COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic |
title | COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic |
title_full | COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic |
title_fullStr | COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic |
title_short | COVID-19: Nothing is Normal in this Pandemic |
title_sort | covid-19: nothing is normal in this pandemic |
topic | Perspective |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8242106/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33605119 http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001 |
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