Impact of Population Emigration from Wuhan and Medical Support on COVID-19 Infection in China

Background: The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection broken out in Wuhan. We aimed to analyse the impact of medical support and population emigration from Wuhan on the cure rate and mortality of COVID-19 infection in China and to provide early warning on the developmental trend of the epidemic. Methods: Data were obtained from The National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and The National Health Commission of People’s Republic of Hubei Province. The Poisson distribution and normal approximate were used to analyse the relationship between population emigration from Wuhan and the probability of outbreaks and to predict the developmental trend of the epidemic situation. Results: The outbreak were related to population emigration from Wuhan in 87% of the cities in Hubei. The result of developmental trend indicated that 95% confidence intervals of confirmed case in Xiaogan and HuangGang were 3301.678–3526.042 and 3201.189–3422.17, respectively. For province outside of Hubei, the outbreak in 76% of the provinces were related to population emigration from Wuhan. Hot spot provinces for epidemic prevention included GuangDong and HeNan. Medical support significantly improved the cure rate of patients with COVID-19 (r = 0.852, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Population emigration from Wuhan has a certain impact on the probability of outbreaks COVID-19 in Hubei and the whole country, medical support improved the cure rate of patients with COVID-19.