CT Quantification of COVID-19 Pneumonia at Admission Can Predict Progression to Critical Illness: A Retrospective Multicenter Cohort Study

Objective: Early identification of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with worse outcomes may benefit clinical management of patients. We aimed to quantify pneumonia findings on CT at admission to predict progression to critical illness in COVID-19 patients. Methods: This retrospective study included laboratory-confirmed adult patients with COVID-19. All patients underwent a thin-section chest computed tomography (CT) scans showing evidence of pneumonia. CT images with severe moving artifacts were excluded from analysis. Patients' clinical and laboratory data were collected from medical records. Three quantitative CT features of pneumonia lesions were automatically calculated using a care.ai Intelligent Multi-disciplinary Imaging Diagnosis Platform Intelligent Evaluation System of Chest CT for COVID-19, denoting the percentage of pneumonia volume (PPV), ground-glass opacity volume (PGV), and consolidation volume (PCV). According to Chinese COVID-19 guidelines (trial version 7), patients were divided into noncritical and critical groups. Critical illness was defined as a composite of admission to the intensive care unit, respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, shock, or death. The performance of PPV, PGV, and PCV in discrimination of critical illness was assessed. The correlations between PPV and laboratory variables were assessed by Pearson correlation analysis. Results: A total of 140 patients were included, with mean age of 58.6 years, and 85 (60.7%) were male. Thirty-two (22.9%) patients were critical. Using a cutoff value of 22.6%, the PPV had the highest performance in predicting critical illness, with an area under the curve of 0.868, sensitivity of 81.3%, and specificity of 80.6%. The PPV had moderately positive correlation with neutrophil (%) (r = 0.535, p < 0.001), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (r = 0.567, p < 0.001), d-Dimer (r = 0.444, p < 0.001), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (r = 0.495, p < 0.001), aspartate aminotransferase (r = 0.410, p < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase (r = 0.644, p < 0.001), and urea nitrogen (r = 0.439, p < 0.001), whereas the PPV had moderately negative correlation with lymphocyte (%) (r = −0.535, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Pneumonia volume quantified on initial CT can non-invasively predict the progression to critical illness in advance, which serve as a prognostic marker of COVID-19.