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Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China
OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-per...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8245925/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34210269 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06165-w |
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author | Jiang, Hui Song, Pengfei Wang, Siyi Yin, Shuangshuang Yin, Jinfeng Zhu, Chendi Cai, Chao Xu, Wangli Li, Weimin |
author_facet | Jiang, Hui Song, Pengfei Wang, Siyi Yin, Shuangshuang Yin, Jinfeng Zhu, Chendi Cai, Chao Xu, Wangli Li, Weimin |
author_sort | Jiang, Hui |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-period epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals, and community-isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in terms of the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, and the time intervals from illness onset to hospitals visit and diagnosis were considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures. RESULTS: The BRN decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 to 0.18 on March 18, 2020. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths would increase by 18.58 and 51.73%, respectively. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decreased by 1/2 and 1/4, the number of cumulative cases would increase by 178.04 and 92.1%, respectively. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit was 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths would increase by 2.79 and 6.19%, respectively. If Fangcang shelter hospitals were not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduced 1/4, and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis became 4 days, the cumulative number of cases would increase by 268.97%. CONCLUSION: The declining BRNs indicate the high effectiveness of the joint measures. The joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals are crucial and need to be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources are limited. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06165-w. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8245925 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82459252021-07-01 Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China Jiang, Hui Song, Pengfei Wang, Siyi Yin, Shuangshuang Yin, Jinfeng Zhu, Chendi Cai, Chao Xu, Wangli Li, Weimin BMC Infect Dis Research OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-period epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals, and community-isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in terms of the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, and the time intervals from illness onset to hospitals visit and diagnosis were considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures. RESULTS: The BRN decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 to 0.18 on March 18, 2020. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths would increase by 18.58 and 51.73%, respectively. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decreased by 1/2 and 1/4, the number of cumulative cases would increase by 178.04 and 92.1%, respectively. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit was 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths would increase by 2.79 and 6.19%, respectively. If Fangcang shelter hospitals were not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduced 1/4, and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis became 4 days, the cumulative number of cases would increase by 268.97%. CONCLUSION: The declining BRNs indicate the high effectiveness of the joint measures. The joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals are crucial and need to be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources are limited. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06165-w. BioMed Central 2021-07-01 /pmc/articles/PMC8245925/ /pubmed/34210269 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06165-w Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Jiang, Hui Song, Pengfei Wang, Siyi Yin, Shuangshuang Yin, Jinfeng Zhu, Chendi Cai, Chao Xu, Wangli Li, Weimin Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China |
title | Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China |
title_full | Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China |
title_fullStr | Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China |
title_full_unstemmed | Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China |
title_short | Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China |
title_sort | quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by fangcang shelter hospitals in response to covid-19 epidemic in wuhan, china |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8245925/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34210269 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06165-w |
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