Using machine learning methods to predict nonhome discharge after elective total shoulder arthroplasty

BACKGROUND: Machine learning has shown potential in accurately predicting outcomes after orthopedic surgery, thereby allowing for improved patient selection, risk stratification, and preoperative planning. This study sought to develop machine learning models to predict nonhome discharge after total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). METHODS: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for patients who underwent elective TSA from 2012 to 2018. Boosted decision tree and artificial neural networks (ANN) machine learning models were developed to predict non-home discharge and 30-day postoperative complications. Model performance was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and overall accuracy (%). Multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables that were significantly associated with the predicted outcomes. RESULTS: There were 21,544 elective TSA cases identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program registry from 2012 to 2018 that met inclusion criteria. Multivariate logistic regression identified several variables associated with increased risk of nonhome discharge including female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 2.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.53-3.17; P < .001), age older than 70 years (OR = 3.19; 95% CI = 2.86-3.57; P < .001), American Society of Anesthesiologists classification 3 or greater (OR = 2.70; 95% CI = 2.41-2.03; P < .001), prolonged operative time (OR = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.20-1.58; P < .001), as well as history of diabetes (OR = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.38-1.75; P < .001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.46-2.01; P < .001), congestive heart failure (OR = 2.65; 95% CI = 1.72-4.01; P < .001), hypertension (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.20-1.52; P = .004), dialysis (OR = 3.58; 95% CI = 2.01-6.39; P = .002), wound infection (OR = 5.67; 95% CI = 3.46-9.29; P < .001), steroid use (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.18-1.74; P = .010), and bleeding disorder (OR = 1.84; 95% CI = 1.45-2.34; P < .001). The boosted decision tree model for predicting nonhome discharge had an AUC of 0.788 and an overall accuracy of 90.3%. The ANN model for predicting nonhome discharge had an AUC of 0.851 and an overall accuracy of 89.9%. For predicting the occurrence of 1 or more postoperative complications, the boosted decision tree model had an AUC of 0.795 and an overall accuracy of 95.5%. The ANN model yielded an AUC of 0.788 and an overall accuracy of 92.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Both the boosted decision tree and ANN models performed well in predicting nonhome discharge with similar overall accuracy, but the ANN had higher discriminative ability. Based on the findings of this study, machine learning has the potential to accurately predict nonhome discharge after elective TSA. Surgeons can use such tools to guide patient expectations and to improve preoperative discharge planning, with the ultimate goal of decreasing hospital length of stay and improving cost-efficiency.