Construction of a five-gene prognostic model based on immune-related genes for the prediction of survival in pancreatic cancer

Purpose: To identify differentially expressed immune-related genes (DEIRGs) and construct a model with survival-related DEIRGs for evaluating the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer (PC). Methods: Six microarray gene expression datasets of PC from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and Immunology Database and Analysis Portal (ImmPort) were used to identify DEIRGs. RNA sequencing and clinical data from The Cancer Genome Atlas Program-Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (TCGA-PAAD) database were used to establish the prognostic model. Univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to determine the final variables of the prognostic model. The median risk score was used as the cut-off value to classify samples into low- and high-risk groups. The prognostic model was further validated using an internal validation set of TCGA and an external validation set of GSE62452. Results: In total, 142 DEIRGs were identified from six GEO datasets, 47 were survival-related DEIRGs. A prognostic model comprising five genes (i.e., ERAP2, CXCL9, AREG, DKK1, and IL20RB) was established. High-risk patients had poor survival compared with low-risk patients. The 1-, 2-, 3-year area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the model reached 0.85, 0.87, and 0.93, respectively. Additionally, the prognostic model reflected the infiltration of neutrophils and dendritic cells. The expression of most characteristic immune checkpoints was significantly higher in the high-risk group versus the low-risk group. Conclusions: The five-gene prognostic model showed reliably predictive accuracy. This model may provide useful information for immunotherapy and facilitate personalized monitoring for patients with PC.