Prediction of early vascular cement leakage following percutaneous vertebroplasty in spine metastases: the Peking University First Hospital Score (PUFHS)

BACKGROUND: Cement leakage into venous blood posed significant challenge to surgeons. The aim of the study was to create a Peking University First Hospital Score (PUFHS) which could evaluate the probability of vascular cement leakage among spine metastases patients following percutaneous vertebroplasty. METHODS: The study retrospectively enrolled 272 spine metastases patients treated with percutaneous vertebroplasty. We randomly extracted all enrolled patients as the training or validation group and baseline characteristic comparison was assessed between the two groups. Creation of the PUFHS was performed in the training group and validation of the PUFHS was performed in the validation group. RESULTS: Of all the 272 patients, the total number of included vertebrae was 632 and the median treated levels were 2 per patient. Vascular cement leakage occurred in 26.47% (72/272) of patients. The baseline characteristics were comparable between the two groups (P > 0.05). Three risk predictors (primary cancer types, number of treated vertebrae levels, and vertebrae collapse) were included in the PUFHS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the PUFHS was 0.71 in the training group and 0.69 in the validation group. The corresponding correct classification rates were 73.0 and 70.1%, respectively. The calibration slope was 0.78 (95% confidence interval[CI]: 0.45–1.10) in the training group and 1.10 (95% CI: 0.73–1.46) in the validation group. The corresponding intercepts were 0.06 (95% CI: − 0.04–0.17) and − 0.0079 (95% CI: − 0.11–0.092), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Vascular cement leakage is common among spine metastases after percutaneous vertebroplasty. The PUFHS can calculate the probability of vascular cement leakage, which can be a useful tool to inform surgeons about vascular cement leakage risk in advance. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08503-2.