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Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis
BACKGROUND: The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a candidate disease for micro-elimination. Accurate baseline HCV prevalence estimation is essential to monitor progress to micro-elimination but can be methodologically challenging in low-endemic regions like the Netherlands due to lack of disaggr...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8254300/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34217261 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06324-z |
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author | Kracht, Patricia A. M. Arends, Joop E. Hoepelman, Andy I. M. Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E. |
author_facet | Kracht, Patricia A. M. Arends, Joop E. Hoepelman, Andy I. M. Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E. |
author_sort | Kracht, Patricia A. M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a candidate disease for micro-elimination. Accurate baseline HCV prevalence estimation is essential to monitor progress to micro-elimination but can be methodologically challenging in low-endemic regions like the Netherlands due to lack of disaggregated data by age or risk-groups on the number of chronic HCV patients (i.e. HCV RNA positive). This study estimates the number of patients that has had a chronic HCV infection (ever-chronic) in the Utrecht region of the Netherlands. METHODS: In the Utrecht province in the Netherlands, positive HCV tests from the period 2001–2015 from one diagnostic center and four hospital laboratories were collected. A two-source capture-recapture method was used to analyze the overlap between the two registries (with 92% HCV RNA and 8% HCV immunoblot confirmed infections) to obtain the number of ever-chronic HCV infections in the Utrecht region. The Utrecht region was defined as an area with a 25 km radius from the Utrecht city center. The current viremic HCV prevalence was calculated by taking into account the proportion of cured and deceased HCV patients from a local HCV retrieval (REACH) project. RESULTS: The estimated number of ever-chronic HCV patients was 1245 (95% CI 1164–1326) and would indicate a prevalence of 0.10 (95% CI 0.09–0.10) in the Utrecht region. This is 30% (95% CI 21–38%) more than the number of known HCV patients in the records. The ever-chronic HCV prevalence was highest in the 1960–1969 age cohort (0.16; 95% CI 0.14–0.18). Since 50% of the HCV patients were cured or deceased in the REACH-project, the number of current viremic HCV patients was estimated at 623 individuals in the Utrecht region (prevalence 0.05%). CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest a low ever-chronic and current HCV prevalence in the Utrecht area in the Netherlands, but other studies need to confirm this. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06324-z. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8254300 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82543002021-07-06 Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis Kracht, Patricia A. M. Arends, Joop E. Hoepelman, Andy I. M. Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E. BMC Infect Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a candidate disease for micro-elimination. Accurate baseline HCV prevalence estimation is essential to monitor progress to micro-elimination but can be methodologically challenging in low-endemic regions like the Netherlands due to lack of disaggregated data by age or risk-groups on the number of chronic HCV patients (i.e. HCV RNA positive). This study estimates the number of patients that has had a chronic HCV infection (ever-chronic) in the Utrecht region of the Netherlands. METHODS: In the Utrecht province in the Netherlands, positive HCV tests from the period 2001–2015 from one diagnostic center and four hospital laboratories were collected. A two-source capture-recapture method was used to analyze the overlap between the two registries (with 92% HCV RNA and 8% HCV immunoblot confirmed infections) to obtain the number of ever-chronic HCV infections in the Utrecht region. The Utrecht region was defined as an area with a 25 km radius from the Utrecht city center. The current viremic HCV prevalence was calculated by taking into account the proportion of cured and deceased HCV patients from a local HCV retrieval (REACH) project. RESULTS: The estimated number of ever-chronic HCV patients was 1245 (95% CI 1164–1326) and would indicate a prevalence of 0.10 (95% CI 0.09–0.10) in the Utrecht region. This is 30% (95% CI 21–38%) more than the number of known HCV patients in the records. The ever-chronic HCV prevalence was highest in the 1960–1969 age cohort (0.16; 95% CI 0.14–0.18). Since 50% of the HCV patients were cured or deceased in the REACH-project, the number of current viremic HCV patients was estimated at 623 individuals in the Utrecht region (prevalence 0.05%). CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest a low ever-chronic and current HCV prevalence in the Utrecht area in the Netherlands, but other studies need to confirm this. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06324-z. BioMed Central 2021-07-03 /pmc/articles/PMC8254300/ /pubmed/34217261 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06324-z Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Kracht, Patricia A. M. Arends, Joop E. Hoepelman, Andy I. M. Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E. Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis |
title | Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis |
title_full | Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis |
title_fullStr | Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis |
title_short | Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis |
title_sort | estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis c with a capture-recapture analysis |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8254300/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34217261 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06324-z |
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