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Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. METHODS: Daily mean temperature, daily counts for...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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BioMed Central
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8254906/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34217207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8 |
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author | Madaniyazi, Lina Chung, Yeonseung Kim, Yoonhee Tobias, Aurelio Ng, Chris Fook Sheng Seposo, Xerxes Guo, Yuming Honda, Yasushi Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben Hashizume, Masahiro |
author_facet | Madaniyazi, Lina Chung, Yeonseung Kim, Yoonhee Tobias, Aurelio Ng, Chris Fook Sheng Seposo, Xerxes Guo, Yuming Honda, Yasushi Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben Hashizume, Masahiro |
author_sort | Madaniyazi, Lina |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. METHODS: Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. RESULTS: The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. CONCLUSION: Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8254906 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82549062021-07-06 Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 Madaniyazi, Lina Chung, Yeonseung Kim, Yoonhee Tobias, Aurelio Ng, Chris Fook Sheng Seposo, Xerxes Guo, Yuming Honda, Yasushi Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben Hashizume, Masahiro Environ Health Prev Med Research Article BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. METHODS: Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. RESULTS: The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. CONCLUSION: Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8. BioMed Central 2021-07-03 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8254906/ /pubmed/34217207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Madaniyazi, Lina Chung, Yeonseung Kim, Yoonhee Tobias, Aurelio Ng, Chris Fook Sheng Seposo, Xerxes Guo, Yuming Honda, Yasushi Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben Hashizume, Masahiro Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 |
title | Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 |
title_full | Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 |
title_fullStr | Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 |
title_full_unstemmed | Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 |
title_short | Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 |
title_sort | seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in japan between 1972 and 2015 |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8254906/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34217207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8 |
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