Added value of cardiovascular calcifications for prediction of recurrent cardiovascular events and cardiovascular interventions in patients with established cardiovascular disease

The purpose is to investigate the added prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic aortic calcium (TAC), and heart valve calcium scores for prediction of a combined endpoint of recurrent major cardiovascular events and cardiovascular interventions (MACE +) in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). In total, 567 patients with established CVD enrolled in a substudy of the UCC-SMART cohort, entailing cardiovascular CT imaging and calcium scoring, were studied. Five Cox proportional hazards models for prediction of 4-year risk of MACE + were developed; traditional CVD risk predictors only (model I), with addition of CAC (model II), TAC (model III), heart valve calcium (model IV), and all calcium scores (model V). Bootstrapping was performed to account for optimism. During a median follow-up of 3.43 years (IQR 2.28–4.74) 77 events occurred (MACE+). Calibration of predicted versus observed 4-year risk for model I without calcium scores was good, and the c-statistic was 0.65 (95%CI 0.59–0.72). Calibration for models II–V was similar to model I, and c-statistics were 0.67, 0.65, 0.65, and 0.68 for model II, III, IV, and V, respectively. NRIs showed improvement in risk classification by model II (NRI 15.24% (95%CI 0.59–29.39)) and model V (NRI 20.00% (95%CI 5.59–34.92)), but no improvement for models III and IV. In patients with established CVD, addition of the CAC score improved performance of a risk prediction model with classical risk factors for the prediction of the combined endpoint MACE+ . Addition of the TAC or heart valve score did not improve risk predictions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s10554-021-02164-9).