The relationship between time to a high COVID-19 response level and timing of peak daily incidence: an analysis of governments’ Stringency Index from 148 countries

BACKGROUND: The transmission dynamics and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is different across countries or regions. Differences in governments’ policy responses may explain some of these differences. We aimed to compare worldwide government responses to the spread of COVID-19, to examine the relationship between response level, response timing and the epidemic trajectory. METHODS: Free publicly-accessible data collected by the Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) were used. Nine sub-indicators reflecting government response from 148 countries were collected systematically from January 1 to May 1, 2020. The sub-indicators were scored and were aggregated into a common Stringency Index (SI, a value between 0 and 100) that reflects the overall stringency of the government’s response in a daily basis. Group-based trajectory modelling method was used to identify trajectories of SI. Multivariable linear regression models were used to analyse the association between time to reach a high-level SI and time to the peak number of daily new cases. RESULTS: Our results identified four trajectories of response in the spread of COVID-19 based on when the response was initiated: before January 13, from January 13 to February 12, from February 12 to March 11, and the last stage—from March 11 (the day WHO declared a pandemic of COVID-19) on going. Governments’ responses were upgraded with further spread of COVID-19 but varied substantially across countries. After the adjustment of SI level, geographical region and initiation stages, each day earlier to a high SI level (SI > 80) from the start of response was associated with 0.44 (standard error: 0.08, P < 0.001, R(2) = 0.65) days earlier to the peak number of daily new case. Also, each day earlier to a high SI level from the date of first reported case was associated with 0.65 (standard error: 0.08, P < 0.001, R(2) = 0.42) days earlier to the peak number of daily new case. CONCLUSIONS: Early start of a high-level response to COVID-19 is associated with early arrival of the peak number of daily new cases. This may help to reduce the delays in flattening the epidemic curve to the low spread level. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00880-x.