The ratio of preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level to total tumor volume as a prognostic factor of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

To evaluate the effect of preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein(AFP) level to total tumor volume (TTV) ratio as a prognostic marker on predicting the tumor recurrence and overall survival time of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation. One-hundred eight patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation in Beijing Chaoyang Hospital from April 2013 to October 2017 were studied. Divided into AFP/TTV≤2 group and AFP/TTV>2 group by the best cut-off score calculated by receiver operation characteristic curve, the clinical and pathological data of the patients in two groups were compared to explore the relationship between AFP/TTV and tumor recurrence together with the prognosis of HCC patients after liver transplantation. Risk factors of early tumor recurrence and poor prognosis of HCC in patients after liver transplantation were studied by multivariate regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare the tumor-free survival and overall survival between the two groups of patients. In 108 patients, 47 patients have AFP/TTV≤2 while 61 patients have AFP/TTV>2. Patients in AFP/TTV≤2 group have longer tumor-free survival time and overall survival time compared with patients in AFP/TTV>2 group. The age, total bilirubin level, serum AFP level, TTV, portal vein tumor thrombus and AFP/TTV (all P < .05) of patient with HCC are closely related to poor prognosis after liver transplantation. Multivariate regression analysis showed that have portal vein tumor thrombus (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.345, P < .05), TTV≥65.5 cm(3) (HR = 2.701, P < .05) and AFP/TTV > 2 (HR = 4.624, P < .05) are independent risk factors for poor prognosis of patients with HCC after liver transplantation while TTV≥65.5 cm(3) (HR = 2.451, P < .05) and AFP/TTV > 2 (HR = 4.257, P < 0.05) were independent risk factors for tumor recurrence at the same time. The tumor recurrence and the prognosis of patients with HCC after liver transplantation is affected by many factors. AFP/TTV ratio has important predictive value for the tumor recurrence and the prognosis of patients with HCC after liver transplantation. AFP/TTV>2 is an independent risk factor for both early tumor recurrence and poor prognosis of patients with HCC after liver transplantation.