Trends in cervical cancer mortality in China from 1989 to 2018: an age-period-cohort study and Joinpoint analysis

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, cervical cancer is the second-most-common malignancy of the female reproductive system. Due to its large population, China accounted for 11.9% of cervical cancer deaths, and 12.3% of global cervical cancer DALYs in 2017. In 2009, China launched a nationwide screening program, yet mortality from cervical cancer has shown an upward trend in recent years. The aim of this study was to explore factors affecting cervical cancer mortality rates in China, and contribute to their future reduction. METHODS: In this descriptive study, a Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) algorithm were utilized. Data from the period 1989–2018 were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Database of WHO (1989–2000) and China Health Statistical Yearbook database (2002–2018). RESULTS: Our study found mortality from cervical cancer to have initially declined, but increase thereafter over the entire observation period in both rural and urban China. The influence of age, period and cohort effect on the mortality rate had statistical significance. The effect of age increased with years, becoming a contributing factor in women aged over 45 years countrywide. Conversely, the cohort effect became a protective factor for women born after 1938 in urban areas, and for women born after 1958 in rural areas. The period effect was relatively less impactful. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates that organized cervical screening projects facilitated the identification of potential patients, or patients with comorbidities. Correspondingly, mortality was found to increase with incidence, particularly among elderly women, indicating that newly diagnosed patients were at an advanced stage of cervical cancer, or were not receiving appropriate treatment. Therefore, the coverage of cervical cancer screening should be improved, and women’s health awareness promoted. Early diagnosis and treatment is critical to reduce the disease burden and improve outcomes.