Nomogram for Predicting the Postoperative Venous Thromboembolism in Spinal Metastasis Tumor: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

INTRODUCTION: Venous thromboembolism can be divided into deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. These diseases are a major factor affecting the clinical prognosis of patients and can lead to the death of these patients. Unfortunately, the literature on the risk factors of venous thromboembolism after surgery for spine metastatic bone lesions are rare, and no predictive model has been established. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 411 cancer patients who underwent metastatic spinal tumor surgery at our institution between 2009 and 2019. The outcome variable of the current study is venous thromboembolism that occurred within 90 days of surgery. In order to identify the risk factors for venous thromboembolism, a univariate logistic regression analysis was performed first, and then variables significant at the P value less than 0.2 were included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Finally, a nomogram model was established using the independent risk factors. RESULTS: In the multivariate logistic regression model, four independent risk factors for venous thromboembolism were further screened out, including preoperative Frankel score (OR=2.68, 95% CI 1.78-4.04, P=0.001), blood transfusion (OR=3.11, 95% CI 1.61-6.02, P=0.041), Charlson comorbidity index (OR=2.01, 95% CI 1.27-3.17, P=0.013; OR=2.29, 95% CI 1.25-4.20, P=0.017), and operative time (OR=1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.63, P=0.001). On the basis of the four independent influencing factors screened out by multivariate logistic regression model, a nomogram prediction model was established. Both training sample and validation sample showed that the predicted probability of the nomogram had a strong correlation with the actual situation. CONCLUSION: The prediction model for postoperative VTE developed by our team provides clinicians with a simple method that can be used to calculate the VTE risk of patients at the bedside, and can help clinicians make evidence-based judgments on when to use intervention measures. In clinical practice, the simplicity of this predictive model has great practical value.