EU-28’s progress toward the 2020 renewable energy share: a club convergence analysis

This paper assesses the convergence of the EU-28 countries toward their common goal of 20% in the renewable energy share indicator by year 2020. The potential presence of clubs of convergence toward different steady-state equilibria is also analyzed from both the standpoints of global convergence to the 20% goal and specific convergence to the various targets assigned to Member States. Two clubs of convergence are detected in the former case, each corresponding to different renewable energy source targets. A probit model is also fitted with the aim of better understanding the determinants of club membership, which seemingly include real GDP per capita, expenditure on environmental protection, energy dependence, and nuclear capacity, with all of them having statistically significant effects. Finally, convergence is also analyzed separately for the transport, heating and cooling, and electricity sectors.