A dose–response meta-analysis between serum concentration of 25-hydroxy vitamin D and risk of type 1 diabetes mellitus

It remains debatable whether vitamin D plays any role as a risk factor for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). We have summarized the effect of circulating 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration on the risk of developing T1DM via a dose–response meta-analysis. We undertook a database search on PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library from inception to January 2020. A meta-analysis based on random-effects model was applied. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed to inspect the source of heterogeneity. Dose–response data were examined using the generalized least squares trend estimation method. This study was registered with the PROSPERO (ID: CRD42020166174). In total, 16 studies including 10,605 participants (3913 case patients) were included. The pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the highest versus the lowest 25(OH)D concentration was 0.39 (0.27, 0.57), with a high heterogeneity (I(2) = 76.7%, P < 0.001). Meta-regression analysis identified latitude (P = 0.02), adjustment for gender (P = 0.001), and 25(OH)D stratification (P < 0.001) as sources of heterogeneity. Furthermore, the nonlinear dose–response analysis determined the OR (95% CI) of T1DM to be 0.91 (0.90, 0.93) per 10 nmol/L increase in the 25(OH)D concentration. A ‘U’-shaped association was found between serum 25(OH)D concentration and risk of T1DM. The present study highlights the significant inverse association between the circulating 25(OH)D concentration and the risk of T1DM.